Posted on Sep 21, 2025
I’ve been posting on this weblog about stuff I’m not an expert about; I have been asking myself if this is right (in general, not specifically about this weblog nobody reads). I’m inclined to conclude that it is fine.
Through the Internet I’ve been exposed to ideas whose existence I was not aware of; it happened while I was reading posts from people that just wanted to express their curiosity about random topics; I’m thankful for this.
Ironically, here is one example that probably sounds stupid: I’m fairly sure the first time my mind was exposed to the sequence of words “critical thinking” was not in school, neither in family, nor in church; it was while reading a comics strip created for fun by (if I remember correctly) a scholar of Mathematics.
Prior to that: I must not underestimate the role of the novel “The World of Null-A” by A. E. van Vogt, of which I read an Italian edition in my preadolescence years (in future I would like to read the original English edition). It made me understand that I wanted to be a critical thinker, even if I was not using those words to describe the concept.
I’m focusing on this because I want to split a portion of my Applied Mathematics project into a subproject; it is not about a subject I am an expert on; the reverse is true: I always struggled to understand what that is all about; in a way: given that I’m an ignorant in that subject, I want to make clear how I understand it, so that it will be easier to spot errors when I use it in the main project. Makes sense?
Anyway, the subject of the subproject is: how to apply the axiomatic theory of probability to model the uncertainty with which we estimate the happening of future events. I gather I’m not the only one who struggles with this; so I suggest the following, which did not solve my doubts, it only reinforced them.