Posted on Jul 4, 2025
PREAMBLE I’m a common citizen of the EU.Italy. I have no economic power. I have no political power. I write this stuff as an exercise in free speech. If I were a Chinese person: I could start getting phone calls (or worse) from Chinese officials telling me to start meditating about my future. I do not want to live like that. Would you?
I have to dump my shit again. As I have written before: I see the geopolitical debate in Italy as appalling. I do not understand what some pundits have in their minds (in Italy: we do not use the word “pundit” or any translation of it; maybe we should start doing it). So I will proceed to dump, in no particular order.
Someone refers to the violation of the treaty between Russia and some western countries, about not extending nato, as “disrespecting the Russian people”. It is entirely possible that such treaty, formal or informal does not matter, has been violated. Treaties get violated all the time.
But do not tell me that it was about “respecting people”: the treaty was about recognising some countries as military powers with nuclear weapons, and so peoples in other countries, without nuclear weapons, had to shut up and bend the knee. What about respecting those other peoples? Did someone ask Poland, Ukraine, the Baltic States if they were fine with the treaty?
According to some persons: extending nato is a direct threat to the Russian people. What about Putin’s repression of dissent and carnage in Chechnya (no matter who started it: both sides were fine with committing atrocities)? Do you want that in your country? Who’s barking at whom?
Let’s not forget that on one side there’s been nato extension, but on the other side the European Union offered Russia the opportunity of integrating economies and betterment of Russians’ human life conditions.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union: the Baltic States were in great difficulty; then (through integration with the West, not integration with the Commonwealth of Independent Nations) step by step they have progressed and built a better life for themselves. This did not happen in Russia, can you tell me why?
It sucks that there is nuclear bombs proliferation. But there is. I am a very bad person, so: I would be fine with Italy having at least tactical nuclear bombs and thermobaric bombs. I recently heard some comments about “having nuclear weapons meaning being part of the Platinum Club” in the geopolitical theatre; I agree.
Another comment with which I agree: India and Pakistan would very much like to go to serious war with each other; they do not do it because both of them have nuclear weapons. The risk is too high. Do these situations slowly suck the life out of humans? Yes, they do. Can we do something about it? No. I mean… India is the homeland of Gandhi, the non-violence man; still India has nuclear weapons. It is what it is!
Do we still have to hear this argument? To me, it is an established historical fact that: if a country is not a big military power, nobody will listen to it in diplomatic exchanges. When an italian political figure says something about stopping to kill humans, or something like that, everybody ignores him/her. It is not different than being the Pope of the Catholic Church: everybody expects him to plead for peace; then everybody ignores him. It is what it is!
Someone says, again and again, that the European Union has no enemies; that there is no threat at all. Putin will not, and would not be able to, conquer Europe by invading it and sending troops through until it reaches Portugal. In my evil opinion: he does not have to.
If he succeeds in replicating the Belarus model in Ukraine, Serbia, Hungary, the Baltic States: he will push forward his political agenda of repression and economic influence. There are politicians, in Italy and elsewhere, that are ready to bend the knee in front of Putin; everybody knows!
The administration of the United States of America did not bomb Western Europe after 1950, still: European governments obeyed it. Current European heads of government still obey the USA. If the USA step back from nato: who will the European heads of government have to obey?
I still remember, years ago, an episode in which the Chinese ambassador in Italy expressed concern because: Italian authorities were not fine with the conditions of labour in some textile districts with strong Chinese presence. As if, according to the ambassador: it was not up to the Italians to enforce rules about rights and safety on the Italian territory. The Italian government was embarrassed, because it is dangerous to contradict China. It is what it is!
I have already written that it is not possible to predict the future; nobody has The Truth in his/her pockets. In the history of mankind: both good choices and bad choices have been made in Geopolitics.
Causing the death of many humans looks like a “bad choice”; but still some humans are fine with it. Causing the economic destruction of countries looks like a “bad choice”; but still some humans are fine with it.
If you want to predict the future, what are you going to do? Predict the real, future mixture of good and bad choices heads of governments will make? And you are confident you can do it?